“Imitation is the Sincerest Form of Flattery” (Further Ramblings of a Layman [COVID]- 2)

April 19, 2020

Well, we are in a Pandemic and it’s not really about “flattery”- it’s more about …

COPY WHAT SEEMS TO WORK from past and current experiences, regardless of personal or political conflict, geographical boundaries or religion!

So, what seems to be working?

  1. Mitigation strategies-
    1. Scale up COVID tests & diagnosis- doing large number of lab diagnoses allow authorities to slow the spread of the infection by isolating known cases while they are infectious, enabling treatment to be administered at a far earlier stage
    1. Increase easily available, random & free testing
    1. “Test and trace for the high-at-risk groups”, which means increasing the manufacture of local test kits
    1. Continue to maintain social distancing
    1. Limit contact with older people, they being more susceptible to the Virus
    1. Two types of testing is required-
      1. Serology tests- which will identify infected patients with antibodies (this will help determine who is immune and help people get back to normal life)
      1. Rapid-antigen test- to diagnose those who carry the virus (without or with minimal symptoms)
  2. Open testing & drive-through centers in each of Karachi’s – as an example – 178 Union Councils to screen as many people, as quickly, as possible.  All tests would be recorded through their CNICs, immediately tested with temperature scan and throat swab.  People who may have interacted with an infected patient should report to testing centers for checking.
  3. “R-0” (R-naught) is the number of new infections an infected person passes on.  Only when R0 is less than 1 will the pandemic start reducing.  So, all mitigation strategies should continue “one month after you drive down the R-naught to zero”.
  4. Increase LOCAL supply chains so as to provide protective gear, supplies & equipment to front line health workers & hospitals; and going hand-in-hand, continuous monitoring and protection of all medical and other essential workers.
  5. Contact Tracing- tracking travel history & all movements of every COVID patient so as to find & test every person in contact with the patient.  This will identify transmission networks and preempt possible further carriers.
  6. Use of Modern Technology & Communications-
    1. *An accurate communication system that disseminates the movements of potentially infected people, in which geographical areas, etc.  There should be ONE SOURCE of this information and all you need to do is push it out to each of the Telco carriers in the City for onwards distribution to the public.  This will enable less contact between possible affected and those not. 
    2. My brother’s suggestion was to use “easy-paisa” & other such portals to disseminate the Federal & Provincial funds to the needy & poor instead of cash payouts.  With almost 80% mobile subscribers in Pakistan, majority of the recipients will be documented, leading to less fraud.

A macro shift is needed from a patient-centered model to community-system care that offers pandemic solutions for the entire population (with a specific emphasis on home care).  As mentioned in my earlier article (https://dinshawavari.com/2020/04/07/a-laymans-thoughts-on-mitigation-strategies-covid/), self-quarantine & home care should not be discounted- it will relieve the strain on hospitals & health workers.

As before, the views in this Paper are personal, from a series of publications I recently studied-

Farm … to Market

November  6, 2019

(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elXGOeS8EUQ)

One of the best investments this Country ever made in the ‘90’s was development of the new Motorways in the Punjab.  Let’s analyze what it has produced-

  • Poverty- Whether it’s the “CPEC” development of roads network, rail links or other transport modes or it’s internally developed, tying city to city and province to province will uplift rural areas and give them access to commerce, trade, emergencies, etc.;
  • Commerce – you’ve shrunk the time, eased the availability and given smooth access to farmers and trade from their villages to large towns and cities;
  • Mobility- Punjab has become MOBILE.  With a maximum travel time of six hours, people can work in one city while their home is in another- very much like cities in USA;
  • Transport- network and infrastructure has increased and become better;
  • Employment- you’ve created new means of income & employment- whether new buses ply the motorways, staffing these buses or opportunities for shops, outlets, offices, etc. (more on this below*)
  • Tourism- you give immediate access to develop internal tourism opportunities (more on this below*).  This summer, my brother, sis-in-law and our families drove from Karachi to Nathiagali, in one of the best overland adventures they have had!

*Tourism & self-employment- Local towns, villages and populace on the road network should be helped & encouraged to put up small, clean, 2-3 star lodgings & cottages– the economy of that area is being developed indigenously.  Pakistani hospitality is one of the best the world has ever seen (but few can experience it in the face of negative publicity ☹).  You don’t need the “Avaris” and the “PCs” & “Serenas” – let it be the “Khan Motel” instead.  One, 10 room lodging will give DIRECT income & employment to a family of 5-7 people minimum; they in turn will employ others to help run the show; producers will sell food stuff, cleaning, linen and other items to these lodgings; the benefits go on down-stream and are never ending; and on & on.  The ancillary developments that take place are another story all together – shops , retails, malls, organized tours, etc.

(http://dunyanews.tv/en/Pakistan/416339-Motorway-opened-for-all-kinds-of-traffic)

There may be no international empirical evidence suggesting an increase in road networks necessarily helps an economy but I see actual, on-the-ground benefits we have gained in Pakistan.  If travel time between Karachi and Lahore can be reduced from almost 24 hours to 12 hours, what’s not to like?  If a series of motorways links the length and breadth of Pakistan, what’s wrong with that?

(As I post this, the new M7 – Multan to Sukkar- just opened!)

A future “Malir River-Basin Dam”?

(Photo credit- https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Malir-River-Basin-MRB_fig1_325475799)

August 12, 2019

Last week I had written about recycling & harvesting rain water (https://dinshawavari.com/2019/08/08/and-the-rains-are-upon-us/).  Then we faced rains in Karachi which I have not seen in decades.  The “natural” effect of this was the massive misinformation & incorrect (some genuinely mistaken) social media warnings & alerts on the effects of the rains in Karachi. 

One post in particular, on the flooding of Malir River, got me thinking.  At the outset, let me clarify that these are my personal views and I hope it doesn’t lead to controversy …

               Water flowing down Sindh province makes its way into Malir River, which generally lays dry through the year.  It’s only when we have sudden rains or this current set of rains when it fills up, and in the latter case, overflowed too.

               The major sources of Karachi’s water are the Hub dam, Keenjhar lake & Haleji lake.

Why don’t we “DAM” up the Malir River Basin within Karachi’s limits?  Why let the precious rain water go to waste, into the Arabian Sea?  If Karachi is seeing its own effects of climate change and our soothsayers predict more of this to come, let’s channelize that water into a massive & natural reservoir down Malir River.  A dam in the middle of the City will also become its own, inbuilt tourist attraction (just like Nasser Dam is in Egypt).  It’s just a matter of finessing this future dam as the main structural setup is already in place.

There will NOT be any negative environmental effects – in fact it will save water; be a positive social change for the people of Karachi through tourism; it will control the environmental pollutants currently flowing into the Malir River. There will be other benefits!

Do you water experts out there agree to this- or a variation of this idea?

(Photo credit- Samaa TV)

…AND THE RAINS ARE UPON US …

August 8, 2019

rainwater harvesting.jpg

(Photo credit- https://www.instructables.com/id/20-Rainwater-Catchment-System-No-Gutters-Required/)

Ironically, in March, I had blogged https://dinshawavari.com/2019/03/25/water-water-everywhere-but-not-a-drop-to-drink/.

… and now the rains are upon us and we don’t have any catchment system.

Karachi is facing proper monsoon rains for the first time in decades.  It’s a good thing too – it cleans up the city; there is more greenery; the temperature drops; and life is so much more pleasant; and the three major reservoirs supplying water to our City get filled.

What is lacking are individual CATCHMENT systems.  Each building can easily have their own rainwater harvesting systems – it doesn’t have to be expensive.  After the last set of “rains” a few weeks back (though our rains are nothing compared to what India and Bangladesh have to go through during their monsoons and cyclone seasons ☹) I started reading up on rainwater harvesting systems.  In our part of the world, Tamil Nadu leads the way!  Brazil, Singapore & Australia are other successful examples.

Just as an example, when reading this website http://www.oas.org/usde/publications/unit/oea59e/ch10.htm, I realized the cost and process of making a catchment system is not prohibitive or unreasonable.  It can even work effectively with a simple tarpaulin.

There is a great need for our Government to lead the way in promoting private households, buildings and tall rises to try to catch and reuse rainwater – the WATER IS FREE PEOPLE … we just need to capture this very very scarce resource and utilize it for non-drinking purposes.

(Here’s another article- https://outdoortroop.com/how-to-capture-and-store-enough-rainwater-for-your-cabin/).

rainwater catchment

(Photo credit-  https://radio.krcb.org/post/rainwater-catchment-systems)